[SMM Chrome Daily Review] Ferrochrome Shipments Challenged, Market in the Doldrums; Chrome Ore Supply Increases, Confidence Wanes

On November 3, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,200-8,300 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price was 8,250-8,350 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, offers for high-carbon ferrochrome were 8,300-8,500 yuan/mt (50% metal content), down 25 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM from the previous trading day. For imported material, offers for South African high-carbon ferrochrome were 8,100-8,400 yuan/mt (50% metal content); offers for Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome were 9,100-9,400 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM from the previous trading day.

At the beginning of the week, the ferrochrome market continued its previous weakness, with producers facing difficulties in selling, and actual transaction volumes showed no improvement. The downstream stainless steel market entered the off-season earlier than usual, and persistently sluggish transactions limited the release of procurement demand for ferrochrome. Additionally, recent news of production cuts from multiple steel mills further dampened market sentiment for ferrochrome. Offers in Inner Mongolia in northern China fell to 8,250 yuan/mt (50% metal content). However, South African ferrochrome export data indicates that overseas ferrochrome supply remains low. In September, South Africa's total exports of high-carbon ferrochrome were 87,600 mt, with direct exports to China at 15,400 mt, down 58.3% MoM and 87.3% YoY, providing some support to the domestic ferrochrome market. Furthermore, the actual implementation of downstream stainless steel production cuts in November is expected to be limited, and stainless steel production is forecast to decline only modestly, supporting rigid procurement demand for ferrochrome. The ferrochrome market is expected to be generally stable with slight fall in the short term.

Raw material side, on November 3, 2025, spot offers for 40-42% South African concentrate at Tianjin Port were 54.5-55.5 yuan/mtu; offers for 40-42% South African raw ore were 49-50 yuan/mtu; offers for 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate were 55.5-56.5 yuan/mtu; offers for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate were 57-58.5 yuan/mtu; offers for 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore were 58.5-60 yuan/mtu; offers for 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate were 65-66 yuan/mtu, down 0.25-0.5 yuan/mtu MoM from the previous trading day. For futures, offers for 40-42% South African concentrate were $279-282/mt; offers for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate were $340-350/mt, down $1.5/mt MoM from the previous trading day.

During the day, inquiry and transaction activity in the chrome ore market was cold. Buyers, specifically ferrochrome producers, released limited rigid procurement demand, and price reduction efforts through counteroffers persisted, with the psychological price level already breaking through 54 yuan/mtu, leading to a market dominated by negotiations between both sides. On the seller side, although spot prices have recently approached cost levels, leading some traders to hold prices firm, the record-high exports of South African chrome ore have had a negative impact. According to South African customs statistics, South Africa's total chrome ore exports in September 2025 were 2.3418 million mt, with direct exports to China at 1.4564 million mt, up 24.1% MoM and 99.6% YoY. Market participants in the chrome ore market anticipated that subsequent chrome ore supply might continue to increase, putting greater pressure on traders to offload goods and dampening their confidence. In the futures market, although the most-traded contract for South African chrome concentrates with 40–42% grade was quoted flat at $282/mt by major mines, offers from other small and medium-sized miners showed some flexibility, with transactions already concluded at $280/mt. As a result, the market predicted that offers from major South African chrome ore miners might decline this week. Additionally, considering that domestic ferrochrome production schedules remained at high levels, providing stable and rigid demand support for chrome ore, some traders believed that after chrome ore inventory was consumed to a certain extent, prices might have the potential to recover. In the short term, the chrome ore market is expected to operate generally stable with a slight fall.